It's no secret I've been bearish on the economy and US stock market for over a year. Given what transpired during the Covid-19 pandemic, ie, the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus poured into the economy by a panicked government, I felt we'd have to pay the piper at some point. In some ways, we certainly [...]
I'm of the opinion that inflation will be with us for awhile. With that in mind, I thought I would provide some thoughts on how to invest in such a market climate. First of all, if inflation remains high, and interest rates remain high, the overall stock market will underperform. Why? Because high interest rates [...]
By many measures, the U.S. stock market was due for a rally last week, and it got one. Over the last three trading days, the market rallied anywhere from about 2.5% to 4% among the major market averages. Prior to the start of the rally, the market had declined for three consecutive weeks after the [...]
It should be apparent by now that we are likely in a recession, as the Federal Reserve has finally embarked on a policy of tightening monetary policy to deal with historic inflation. Most pundits were shocked that 1st quarter GDP came in at -1.4%, as virtually no Wall Street economist predicted that much weakness. I [...]
As many people know, Netflix got creamed in the stock market yesterday as it traded down 35% from its previous close. This was in response to a lousy earnings report.Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who runs Pershing Square Capital Management, was among the investors who suffered significant losses. He decided to exit his position with a [...]
On Twitter today there some griping by some that a market pundit on CNBC was calling the current stock market a "bear market." I actually agree with that assessment, but I'll get to that in a minute. Wall Street likes to use various labels and categories, and one thing it hates to do is put the [...]
As one trader I follow commented today, "the selling was just relentless, and there was no bid to the market." The fact of the matter is that we are likely in the beginning stages of a bear market. At the very least, it will be extremely difficult for the market to make much headway in [...]
One of my favorite books on the subject of trading is How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market. The book was written by professional dancer Nicolas Darvas in the late 1950s and describes how he turned a $50,000 account into over $2 million (that was some serious money back then!) in less than two years. [...]
Trend following is one of the more popular approaches to trading employed by money managers who trade primarily in the futures markets. It is also an approach employed by some hedge fund managers who trade in equities. With that in mind, I thought I would provide a primer on this important concept, as I feel it [...]