By early 2022 we’ll know

By early 2022, we’ll know that the election of Joe Biden was an enormous mistake.

Right now he benefits from being early in his term, and a media that covers his ass.

But, there will come a point when the error of his ways will be too obvious to too many people, and the regret will be real.

The primary issues will be…

• His $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus package will be largely ineffective
• Energy prices will be higher as a result of his anti-fossil fuel stance
• The unemployment rate will still be elevated compared to prior to the pandemic
• His Middle East policies will be destabilizing
• China will be more emboldened

Keep in mind, Biden is not the man in charge.  This is effectively a third term for Barack Obama, and we can already see a renewal of his policies.

Few people outside the Democrat party really believe Biden will make it through a four year term.  Kamala Harris was handpicked to be his Vice President, in spite of the fact that she didn’t even make it to the primaries in her run for president.

But, I digress.  Let’s have a look at how these policies will have a negative impact on the U.S.

Covid stimulus package

Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus package will do little to help the people and businesses who have suffered the most during this pandemic.  It’s already clear that it’s just a big handout to friends of the Democratic party.

In other words, it’s similar to the stimulus package the Democrats pushed through in 2009, but more than twice as costly.

Keep this in mind.  The Obama stimulus package was so ineffective at jumpstarting the economy that the Federal Reserve was forced to continue its quantitative easing program all the way until the end of 2014.

And, when they stopped printing money, the economy stagnated once again so that a central bank intervention was needed to prop up the stock market in early 2016 in order to give Hillary a chance at winning the presidency.

Donald Trump was elected in 2016 because the Obama economy left blue collar America behind.

Energy prices will be higher

During Trump’s four years in office, oil prices before Covid traded from about $40 to $70 and generally averaged in the low $50 per barrel level.

In his first day in office, Biden shut down construction of the Keystone XL pipeline that would send Canadian oil to our refineries in the Midwest and Southwest.

That alone cost about 1,000 Americans their jobs, and in the long run at least 11,000 jobs directly related to the pipeline.

Other policies he put in place will restrict development on Federal lands.

Furthermore, Biden’s stance on Middle East policy will surely result in a less stable Middle East region, which I’ll discuss next.  New tensions in that region will surely result in higher oil prices.

Middle East Policy

Barack Obama is not a fan of Israel, and Bibi Netanyahu in particular.

Joe Biden is continuing Obama’s policy stances in the Middle East by trying to re-start the Iranian Nuclear deal, while at the same time giving the cold shoulder to Netanyahu AND throwing Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) under the bus.

In just the last few days, Biden has already fired missiles into Syria, and released a report implicating MBS in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Keep in mind Khashoggi had strong ties to Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaeda and the Qatari government, which is no friend to the U.S.

That doesn’t justify his murder as Caroline Glick says in this piece.  However, making him out to be some martyr when he was terror supporting agent of Qatar is irresponsible.

The fact is, the Obama-Biden team has been on the side of the jihadis from day one, and we should expect instability in the Middle East once again as these groups become more emboldened.

Bottom line… the never ending war in the Middle East will intensify once again.

Unemployment will remain elevated

The most recent unemployment rate figure in January was 6.3%.  Yet, new unemployment claims are still hovering around 750,000 to 800,000 per week.

That is not a sign of a healthy economy.  Typically at an unemployment rate at that level, with the rate coming down, new weekly jobless claims would be around 300,000 to 350,000.

Yet, as I mentioned, the stimulus money is not going where it needs to be.

While many people will get another check (up to $2,,800 for a family earning less than $150K), about $350 billion will be going to state and local governments hit by the economic shutdown.

Keep in mind, it was mostly blue states that shut their economies down in the face of the pandemic, and therefore, they will get the most benefit.

Another $130 billion is going to public schools to reduce class sizes and allow for more social distancing.

Meanwhile, a measly $25 billion will go to businesses such as restaurants and bars that were most adversely affected by the economic lockdowns imposed in many states.

Bear in mind, many of those businesses have already closed permanently.

According to some GOP members opposed to the bill, there are goodies in there, such as $100 million toward a high speed rail project in Pelosi’s district, more money for the Endowment for the Arts, etc.

The problem is that thousands of small businesses were crushed out of existence by the economic lockdowns, while the likes of Amazon, Target and Wal-Mart saw their fortunes grow.

These lockdowns have caused the greatest transfer of wealth away from the middle class to the top 1% in history.

And, coming on the heels of the 2007-2009 financial crisis that caused another similar transfer of wealth, the middle class in this country is just about broken.

China

China understands that America is in decline.  Xi Jinping is laughing to himself as he sees the current administration pulling back from Trump’s policies that made America more secure.

Biden, and much of DC, has never viewed China as a threat.  Instead, our politicians and big corporations have been more interested int doing more business with China at the expense of the American middle class.

Through Hunter Biden’s dealings, the Biden family has enriched itself.  There is no way Joe Biden wants that to end.

Going forward, China will continue to be the biggest threat to the U.S.

Final thoughts

Once we get through the little economic boomlet we are likely to experience starting this Spring, our economic fortunes will be short-lived.

There are already storm clouds gathering in the form of higher inflation, a dramatic increase in financial market speculation, and the spectre of tensions in the Middle East.

Because this stimulus package will do little to stimulate the eocnomy in the long run, and since Biden’s Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is already intent on raising corporate interest rates, there will be a massive hangover from this stimulus.

As a result, I anticipate the economy will slow down sharply in early 2022, and if there is a major bear market in U.S. stocks underway, the economic downturn could be quite severe.

Many of us who’ve watched the markets for years suspect we are experiencing a bubble in the market similar to 1999 and similar to the housing bubble of 2005-2006.

The bursting of those bubbles lead to major declines in the stock market, and significant economic pain.

Given the level of debt our government how has, and the historically low level of interest rates we already have, there will not be much the government can do to alleviate the pain.

We’ll see how it all shakes out, but this third Obama term looks like an impending disaster from my point of view.

I hope I’m wrong.